Books
The Myth Of A Good Jobs Number
Look at these headlines!Job growth surges, jobless rate drops to 8.3 percent (reuters)WOW! Things really must be getting better! 243,000 jobs, 8.3% rate.
Unemployment rate falls to 8.3%; fifth straight monthly decline (LA Times)
Obama team trumpets good jobs numbers (USA Today)
US Jobless Rate Falls to 3-Year Low, Report Shows (NY Times)
Snap analysis: Job creation accelerates broadly (Reuters)
Or are they? Hmm.. well that all sounded good right? But what about the data behind those numbers? Things like labor force, participation rate, employment/population ratio... Shh.. those are too complicated for the newspapers and TV news! Besides, you're a good American right? Can't be talking things down in an election year!
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Category
Jan.
2011
Nov.
2011
Dec.
2011
Jan.
2012
Change from:
Dec.
2011-
Jan.
2012
Employment status
Civilian noninstitutional population
238,704
240,441
240,584
242,269
-
Civilian labor force
153,250
153,937
153,887
154,395
-
Participation rate
64.2
64.0
64.0
63.7
-
Employed
139,330
140,614
140,790
141,637
-
Employment-population ratio
58.4
58.5
58.5
58.5
-
Unemployed
13,919
13,323
13,097
12,758
-
Unemployment rate
9.1
8.7
8.5
8.3
-
Not in labor force
85,454
86,503
86,697
87,874
-
So what really has happened in the past year? Well the civilian noninstitutional population rose 3.6 million. The civilian labor force rose 1.1 million. The participation rate FELL 0.5 percentage points. The employment to population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to an abysmal 58.5%. Finally, those "not in labor force" rose nearly 2.3 million, an astounding 1.1 million in the last month alone.
So for the math challenged, the trick here has been to reduce the size of the labor force at a rate greater than the increase in number of persons employed. Presto chango you get a declining unemployment rate which makes the lede on every news report.
Of course, the reality is far different. What would the top line unemployment rate had been for Jan. 2012 if the participation rate were the same 64.2% as Jan. 2011? Yep, 8.9%. How about if the participation rate were what it was in Jan. 2009 (65.4%)? 10.6%. Jan 2002 (66.2%)11.7% !
And of course, there is the other game that is played - seasonal adjustments. The fudge factor. One can avoid this too by looking at year over year unadjusted figures. For instance, Dec 2010/Dec 2011 and Jan 2011/Jan 2012. Using that method we have Dec'10 9.1%, Jan'11 9.8%, Dec '11 8.3% and Jan'12 8.8%
Splitting the difference, a drop of 0.9%.
However, the partipation rates also dropped - 0.3 pts Dec/Dec and 0.5 pts Jan/Jan. In fact, Jan 2012 is the LOWEST labor force participation rate in the past decade at 63.4%. This is reflected by the 2.6 million increase in 'not in labor force' over that same time frame. In fact, you must go back to pre-1984 to find similar rates. However, the trend at that time was upward from the 57.5 to 58.0% of the late 1940s to late 1960s when women were a smaller part of the work force. the peak at 66.1% in July 1997. On an annual basis 67.1% was the peak rate and ocurred in 1997-2000. From 2004-2008 the rate was 66.0. The other ratio, employment to population peaked at 64.4% in 2000 after spending the late 40s through 1970 either side of 56%. January 2012 saw this figure drop to 57.8%, last seen in 1983 and not far off from those Nifty Fiftie's rates.
Sorry to rain on the parade, but yes, things still really do suck.
Cold War Intrigue
Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Games by Tennent H. Bagley ISBN 978-0300121988This fascinating book proved great medicine while we were laid up with a cold over the recent holidays. The author was a counterintelligence officer at CIA in the 1950s and 60s, eventually rising to chief of counterintelligence for the Soviet Russia ("SR") Division and Division Deputy Director. While the book looks into many historical Tsarist and Soviet intel operations, the prime focus is on the case of a notorious KGB Soviet defector, Yuri Nosenko which the author was directly involved. The author also spends considerable time on the efforts (cover up?) by the CIA and others to rehabilitate Nosenko's bona fides as a genuine and valuable defector.
The bottom line is this - if you take the author at his word concerning the interviews and documents he was involved in, as well as those of others, there is no way one can see Nosenko as anything but a false defector. However, the question in my mind is why they would willingly send someone so blatantly unprepared - certainly they thought better of CIA than that? I have to wonder if the actual decision to 'defect' was in fact Nosenko's - he was a drunk and womanizer and going no where fast at KGB. His 1962 Geneva trip was probably a real KGB operation, but the subsequent trip could have seen Nosenko go off reservation figuring he had a ticket to a better life (ultimately) in the US if he defected rather than work in place as a 'double' as per KGB orders. This would have put KGB in quite the difficult situation.
Anyone interested in intelligence operations, especially those of the cold war period should read this book. We can only hope now that Nosenko is dead that the CIA will release *all* the files, at least those that were not destroyed in the late 1960s.
On Nuclear Terrorism
On Nuclear Terrorism by M. Levi ISBN 9780674026490If you are not a wonk, move on as this book is not for you. Thoroughly referenced, Levi's book goes into detail on the subject of nuclear terrorism and its defense. What might be surprising is that we now find ourselves somewhat more at ease than before reading it. The physics of nuclear weapons was not new to us yet much of the engineering aspects were and when viewed along side the various controls and defenses now in place, one begins to realize just how difficult a task building a very small rudimentary weapon would be to even the 'best' terrorist group. While not the fastest read due in part to the need to check the extensive footnotes, anybody who either needs to know or wants to know about this subject should read this book and not risk being lost in journalistic hyperbole or worse, government proaoganda.
Vacuum Diagrams
Vacuum Diagrams by S. Baxter ISBN 9780061059049Being a fan of hard Sci Fi and not the touchy-feely rubbish publishers push on the genre these days, Baxter's books looked very interesting. Checking quickly on-line for sequencing of his novels (there appeared to be an underlying theme related to an alien race called the Xeelee), we came across this quote from the author:
I’m not a great fan of books that end with cliff-hangers. So you could go in anywhere. One way would be to start with ‘Vacuum Diagrams’, a collection that sets out the overall story of the universe. Then ‘Timelike Infinity’ and ‘Ring’ which tell the story of Michael Poole, then ‘Raft’ and ‘Flux’ which are really incidents against the wider background, and finally ‘Destiny’s Children.’"Taking his advice, we are now about one-third into Vacuum Diagrams and we like it.
Steidlmayer on Markets
Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile by J. Steidlmayer and S. Hawkins ISBN 9780471215561Always looking for some new perspectives on trading, we decided to finally take the plunge and try to understand market profile. What better source than a book co-written (and blessed) by the man who created the technique, Mr. Steidlmayer? Recommended for any chartists who would like to incorporate this method into their trading.
Calculus Of Variations
L.E. Elsgolc, Addison Wesley 1962 (translated from the original in Russian),LOC 61-14038This book was recommended background reading for topics using functional analysis such as advanced quantum mechanics and quantum electrodynamics. As far as math books go, it is actually concise and clear. As we are about to embark on a few Feynman texts, this is a handy little item. Note there are paperback copies available at low cost but also many complaints of illegible print so get the Addison Wesley hard cover edition of you can find it.
From The Shadows
The Ultimate Insider's Story Of Five Presidents And How They Won The Cold War by Robert M. Gates, Simon & Shuster 1996 ISBN 0684810816Written by the new US Secretary of Defense, this book details his time at CIA and the NSC from the mid 1960's through his appointment as DCI in late 1991 and his view of the events and men who fought the Cold War. While there is an undercurrent through much of the book which leads you to believe it may be in response to an earlier autobiography by long time Reagan Secretary of State George Schultz, on the whole it was very informative. Gates, in addition to climbing the ranks of CIA, also served twice in the NSC and hence had direct access at the highest levels to both political decision makers as well as the most important military and economic intelligence on the USSR. Ironically, we had just finished the section dealing with the Ford presidency at the time of his death and because of this book knew Ford had much more on his plate than Watergate and cleaning up loose ends in Viet Nam. Beyond the historical importance, this is also a valuable resource into the thinking of the man now in charge of (hopefully) extracting some degree of success out of Iraq.
Shadowmarch
Tad Williams, ISBN 0756403596The first installment in a new fantasy trilogy by an accomplished author in the genre. Williams has paid close attention to detail beginning with his first work, Tailchaser's Song and this story is no exception. Halfway through, the character development is excellent while the plot line is gradually building up steam. This installment looks to finish well and judging by his past works, the time reading this trilogy (first book 796 pages) will be well spent.
Fundamental Astronomy
Springer 3rd Edition, eds. Karttunen, Kröger, Oja, Poutanen and Donner ISBN 3540609369This introductory survey began as lecture notes from a class that Oja taught in the late 1980's in Helsinki. Additional work was added by other Finnish academics as well as the editors who were also responsible for the translations to English and German. The book is concise and clear and is a good refresher text. An updated 5th edition is due out this October.
Faces Of A Nation
The Rise And Fall Of The Soviet Union, 1917-1991, by Baltermants and Von Laue ISBN 1-55591-262-1 This oversized hardcover is a history of the Soviet Union told through the camera of Dmitri Baltermants and text of historians Theodore and Angela Von Laue. Baltermants (1912-1990) was an eminent photographer who served in an official capacity for the Kremlin as well as the news magazine Ogonyok, beginning his work in 1939 for Izvestiya. His photographs capture many facets of Soviet life from military action to daily life to politics and flow through an interesting and well written account of the circumstances of the rise and fall of the cold war nemesis of the United States. RecommendedRelativity
The Special And The General Theory, Einstein. Reprint by Tess Press, hardcover ISBN: 9781579125158 (custom) Reprint of the original 1916 and 1952 addition to Einstein 'common man' classic. Not much to be said that isn't already known; small hard cover format is nice.Computer and Digital System Architecture
William D. Murray, Prentice Hall 1990 ISBN: 0131657216 Yawn. A bit dated and not quite what I expected, but was only a couple bucks in the Borders sale bin. Had hoped for a bit more nuts and bolts but getting better after the first few very dry chapters. Probably will end up skimming the rest and looking for something more recent and perhaps one design level lower.Alexander Hamilton
Ron Chernow, Penguin Press ISBN: 0143034758 Biographies and other historical books are generally not high up on our list of books to read as most to our taste are quite boring. However, Hamilton received high praise from a number of sources so we picked this tome up on sale at Borders. And it is a tome at 731 pages (excluding notes) in trade paper back with not an especially large font! Yet it is by far the best biography we have read - a high level of relevant detail but done such that the story flows at a very good pace. Read at night, it tends to keep you awake rather than put you to sleep which is certainly praise worthy for this genre.As to the content, it now amazes me how little attention is paid to Hamilton in our schools as he was directly responsible for much of what we now call the Federal government and not just the idea of a central bank. In many ways he was a Clintonesque character except he actually delivered on the promise his compatriots saw in him. This book is well worth reading, even if it takes you a few weeks (or months!) to finish.
