02 02 07 Chirac on Iran: Realistic Insight Or Le Sabot Dans La Bouche
Yesterday French President Chirac made some comments on the Iranian nuclear program which he believed were off the record. Ooops!"I would say that what is dangerous about this situation is not the fact of having a nuclear bomb - having one, maybe a second one a little later, well, that's not very dangerous. But what is very dangerous is proliferation. This means that if Iran continues in the direction it has taken and totally masters nuclear generated electricity, the danger does not lie in the bomb it will have, and which will be of no use to it. Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 meters into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed."In fact, we find his view on Iran to be realistic, though perhaps less so on Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Certainly there is a risk they would seek their own weapons as a deterrent to Iran, but we think in the longer analysis they will realize their money is better directed to a more modern conventional military and economy. But we won't discount it and leave it for discussion at another time.
"What is dangerous is proliferation. It is really very tempting for other countries in the region that have large financial resources, to say: 'Well, we too, we're going to do it. We're going to help out others to do it.' Why wouldn't Saudi Arabia do it? Why wouldn't it help Egypt to do so as well? That is the danger."
But the follow-up statements by Chirac were a little disheartening in that he tries to explain away what he said, including reiterating the official 'no Iranian nukes' policy. And he once again makes Frenchmen look like wishy washy wimps. But did he let the cat out of the bag? Perhaps so and some might say he has weakened the West's bargaining position with Iran. We see it more as stating the obvious truth known to both sides.
Wonder how much he was squirming during this exchange:
"I spoke quickly and I retract it, of course, when I said, 'One is going to raze Tehran.' It was of course a manner of speaking in my mind. I don't imagine that we could raze Tehran. But it is obvious that if an undeniably aggressive act, which is to say sending a bomb payload on a launch rocket, took place and this bomb would be - I repeat - automatically destroyed without even having left the Iranian soil or at least the Iranian airspace, it is obvious there would be without a doubt measures of coercion, measures of retaliation, of course. It is part of nuclear deterrence."
"I drifted, because I thought we were off the record, to say that, for example, Saudi Arabia or Egypt could be tempted to follow this example. I retract it, of course, since neither Saudi Arabia nor Egypt have made the slightest declaration on these subjects so it is not up to me to make them."
"I don't think I spoke about Israel yesterday. Maybe I did so but I don't think so. I have no recollection of that."
"Sometimes one can drift off, when one believes there are no consequences. I, I honestly believed that the questions aside from the environment were off the record."
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