03 02 09 Iran Becomes More Complicated
Word comes this morning that Iran claims to have successfully launched its first orbiting satellite, Omid ("Hope") on its Safir ("Ambassador") launcher. The Safir was most recently tested last August and is believed to be a derivative of the Shahab-3 a booster, a descendant of the Korean Nodong-1 missile. While Western intelligence agencies have confirmed the launch, they have said little more about the Omid payload. Iranian President Ahmadinejad said after the launch that the satellite had made contact with Iranian ground control but that its other communication systems had not yet been activated. So some doubt remains over the status of Omid but that is hardly the salient point. That Iran claims to have delivered a satellite into orbit is the big news. [Update: From Armscontrolwonk.com "NASA has posted the first orbital elements of the satellite and its third stage rocket body and, running the orbits backwards, they are totally consistent with a launch from the “Kavoshgar” launch site at 18:38 on 2 February 2009 (GMT)."]As has long been the case with Iran, a potential destabilizing military development is again couched in terms of peaceful scientific and technological advancement. Certainly a space launch capability is an impressive technological achievement and allows Iran to have its own communications infrastructure without dependence on western companies (and their governments). The successful enrichment and processing of natural uranium into fuel for a nuclear reactor(s) is another advance which frees Iran from the normal sourcing of low-enriched reactor fuels. However, both technologies can be used militarily, alone or in combination. There lies the problem for the US and other governments. Is the development of an indigenous space program a legitimate right of any country? Or, because of dual-use, will new technological developments initially seen in the US and Europe be deemed unacceptable for second and third world countries such as Iran, thus fully stepping on the slippery slope where just about anything can find a significant military use alone or in combination? To what lengths should the US (and others) go to stop the development and use of such technologies? Is turning Iran into rubble OK while we accept programs from nuclear capable states such as Brazil and Japan? Were there some form of legitimate peace between Iran and Israel would we no longer fear what Iran intends or could do with these technologies?
There is no immediate national threat from Safir as a ballistic missile launcher for an Iranian nuclear bomb - there are still many hurdles (not least of which is the making of a bomb small enough to be carried by Safir) such as guidance and re-entry which Iran must cross. But for too long the West has stuck its collective head in the sand, repeatedly saying no, no, no to the use of technologies they themselves take for granted. A better approach would be to develop a real and substantial diplomatic framework now to deal with these issues in the general sense so that we do not do this song and dance every time an unfriendly country develops a dual-use technology. To think that nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles will be the most complex developments the West must confront is folly - these are fifty plus year old instruments of power. Science and technology do not stand still and what is a coveted national military secret one day will be readily obtainable to others in the future. There is no lock on knowledge and once obtained, there is no going back.
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