02 09 11 August 2011 NonFarm Payrolls

Lots of ink has already been spilled over this dismal number. I thought it might be interesting to take a longer term view of what has been going on. The chart below shows a rolling 12 month average of non-seasonally adjusted employment data from BLS indexed to July 1973=100 and with the actual or estimated US resident population growth for comparison.

I was somewhat shocked to see that the Federal government is no larger than it was in 1973! However, the chart clearly shows the big problem is out of control state and local employment growth. There is no reason for state and local employment to grow faster than the actual rate of population growth and in fact we would argue the rate should be far lower than a 1:1 ratio. Bad news indeed - just a question of when the municipal bankruptcies begin. click to enlarge the chart



The shift in population around year 2000 is because the Census bureau did not revise their previous estimates of montly populations between 1990 and 2000 thus there is a discontinuity.




  
Remember personal info?

Emoticons / Textile

Comment moderation is enabled on this site. This means that your comment will not be visible on this site until it has been approved by an editor.

This is to prevent automated spam. Please type your answer all in CAPS
 

  (Register your username / Log in)

Notify:
Hide email:

Small print: All html tags except <b> and <i> will be removed from your comment. You can make links by just typing the url or mail-address.



Copyright 2004-2013 by Gedanken Experiment (previously Rant Street) except as otherwise noted. Our terms of use are as follows: Content on Gedanken Experiment may not be indexed, cached, reproduced or syndicated in any manner by any party whose purpose is to provide such an index, cache, reproduction or syndication of our content for a monetary fee or other consideration to their clients, customers or users. Content on Gedanken Experiment may not be copied, reproduced, republished, indexed, cached, uploaded, posted , transmitted, framed or distributed in any way, without the prior written permission of Gedanken Experiment, except that a) user may download, display, or print one copy of the materials on any single computer solely for user's use; b) user may briefly quote or excerpt for use in a review or criticism for purposes of illustration or comment or as part of a news report as per fair use guidelines of www.copyright.gov; c) internet search engines which provide the public the ability to search online content at no charge (free) may index and cache content from Gedanken Experiment which is not explicitly blocked by robots.txt; in case (a), (b) and (c) above user agrees to keep intact all copyright, trademark, and other proprietary notices of both Gedanken Experiment and any other third parties mentioned in our content. Modification of the materials or use of the materials for any other purpose is a violation of Gedanken Experiment's, its affiliates', or its third-party information providers' copyrights and other proprietary rights. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as conferring by implication, estoppel, or otherwise, any license or right under any copyright, patent, trademark, or other proprietary interest of Gedanken Experiment, its affiliates, or any third party, except as expressly set forth herein. 02-13-2007